State data suggests another year of enrollment growth

The state of Iowa should see one more year of growth in its number of high school graduates -- and in college enrollment-- before a decline begins in the fall of 2027. That's about a year later than most states, the Iowa Board of Regents learned during a presentation Wednesday by Jason Pontius, the board's associate chief academic officer. Each fall, Pontius updates the board on high school student data and college enrollment expectations.

He said several factors, including a diminishing pool of out-of-state prospective students and less interest among Iowa high school graduates to attend college at all could present challenges to admissions teams. In 2012, 70% of Iowa high school graduates went on to college; in 2023, that figure dropped to 62% but is showing signs of flattening out, he said. Fortunately, interest in attending an Iowa regent university has remained steady during that time.

Based on actual K-12 enrollment in Iowa, Pontius said the regent universities would hit the bottom of the state enrollment "trough" in fall 2029. If the regent schools can maintain their success recruiting out-of-state students, fall 2029 figures could mirror fall 2022 enrollments, he said. At Iowa State fall 2022 enrollment was 30,020, its second lowest in the last decade.

He noted the regent universities' success at recruiting out-of-state students, particularly first-year undergraduates, has offset declines in international graduate students and community college transfer students and the impact of stronger graduation rates to keep enrollment trending up. Over the last 12 years, about 86% of college-bound Iowa students stayed in the state for their educations. For every Iowa resident who attended a public university out of state, the regent universities collectively attracted 3.5 nonresident students to Iowa.

First-year students arriving with college credits

Not only has the average number of college credits first-year Iowa resident students arrive with gone up in the last 15 years -- from 17 to 24 credits -- so has the number of students starting college with one to four semesters' worth of college credit (from 2,056 to 3,832 across the three universities), Pontius said. 

State policies in Iowa regarding dual enrollment make it fairly easy -- and free -- for high school students to earn college credits. He noted that several hundred Iowa students graduate each spring with both a high school diploma and an associate's degree, and that number is growing. While college credits allow some students to add a minor or second major, intentionally lighten their academic load or even graduate early, there could be a diminishing return if a student arrives with a load of credits from 100-level courses. He noted several issues:

• 100-level courses typically count toward general education requirements but are less likely to be able to help build a major, particularly with programs in fields such as engineering or architecture.
• Differences in pace and rigor when a course is taught over a high school academic year versus a college semester may impact learning.
• Large numbers of students arriving with college credits reduce revenue and may create workforce challenges for the departments and colleges responsible for offering those courses at a university.

One-year comparison: Cyclone subsets

*For the fourth consecutive year, students from India (677) make up the largest subset of international students at ISU. Rounding out the Top 3 are student counts from China (309) and Bangladesh (254).